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☆ Michael Pettis explains why debt is not the problem, but the symptoms of China's economic woes
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMichael Pettis explains why debt is not the problem, but the symptoms of China's economic woesMichael Pettis of Carnegie China says we are beginning to see the impact of China's high debt-to-GDP levels and the country will need another source of real growth if the "rapid expansion" of infrastructure comes to an end.

Persons: Michael Pettis Organizations: Carnegie Locations: Carnegie China

☆ China has 'not been very good' at boosting domestic demand, professor says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina has 'not been very good' at boosting domestic demand, professor saysMichael Pettis, finance professor at Peking University, says China's economy is "structured around transfers to the supply side."

Persons: Michael Pettis Organizations: China, Peking University

☆ China's economic weakness: Confidence is not the biggest problem, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's economic weakness: Confidence is not the biggest problem, analyst saysMichael Pettis of Carnegie China lack of confidence in the country's economy is a "consequence of the deeper problems."

Persons: Michael Pettis Organizations: Carnegie Locations: Carnegie China

Many economists have called on China to boost its social safety net to rebalance the economy. Yao was unswayed and would prefer consumer vouchers, which some local governments in China have issued, but in amounts too small to matter at a macro level. Local governments, while cash poor, are asset rich. Michael Pettis, senior fellow at Carnegie China, estimates that if Beijing forces local governments to transfer 1-1.5% of GDP to households, China could maintain current growth. "One of the really big conflicts is likely to be between Beijing and the local governments over how to allocate the various adjustment costs.

Persons: Erin Yao, Juan Orts, Orts, Tokyo's, Yao, joblessness, Jens Eskelund, Wang Jiliu, Wang, Michael Pettis, Laurie Chen, Kripa Jayaram, Marius Zaharia, Sam Holmes Organizations: Fathom Consulting, Communist Party, Reuters Graphics, European Chamber of Commerce, Carnegie China, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, HONG KONG, China, Beijing, United States, Hainan

But last week, Chinese state media slammed Goldman Sachs after the Wall Street firm recommended selling shares in local banks because of their exposure to risks in the domestic economy. Group of 20 central bankers and finance ministers are meeting this week in India, with this data adding to their worries about the state of the global economy. Some pessimists say the Chinese economy has peaked and a significant slowdown is coming. But, Mr. Pettis added, international investors need to look at China differently than they once did. “When China was growing at double-digit rates, even poor parts of the economy were growing,” he said.

Persons: ” George Magnus, DealBook, Xi, Goldman Sachs, Covid, Michael Pettis, Pettis, ”, “ Organizations: Oxford University’s China Center, UBS, West, Street, Peking University Locations: China, Beijing, India, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Kyiv

☆ China’s Catch-22 situation for the economy – and how to invest around it
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A look through China's economy today reveals a few dilemmas, especially for investors trying to gauge future growth. The nature of China's economic recovery over the last few months from Covid have unique characteristics that aren't easily captured in broad strokes, Goldman Sachs' Andrew Tilton and a team pointed out back in late May. That means the stock winners of China's recovery are likely hidden under broader market performance. One month since Goldman's assessment, China's economic trajectory remains the same. "If weak confidence becomes so entrenched, it could be self-fulling and derail the economic recovery."

Persons: outflows, Michael Pettis, Chang Li, There's, — it's, Goldman Sachs, Andrew Tilton, Covid, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Peking University, CNBC, Citi, AIA, Hong Locations: U.S, China, Hong Kong, Shenzhen

☆ Analysis: China's small steps on offshore use of yuan are starting to add up
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SINGAPORE, April 27 (Reuters) - China's yuan currency is slowly but surely being adopted for more international payments, which analysts say could lay foundations for a trade system running parallel to the dominant U.S. dollar. True global yuan adoption is unlikely, given expectations that Beijing will want to keep a tight grip on the currency. "Their cooperation could draw other countries to renminbi payments over time and cumulatively, this group could lift the renminbi at the expense of the dollar," he said. "This kind of renminbi internationalisation may achieve Beijing's goals, including reducing China’s exposure to exchange rate fluctuations and mitigating China’s vulnerabilities to U.S. financial sanctions." "Therefore, if exporters want to use yuan to settle trades, they must persuade foreign importers to pay in yuan, which often takes a long time."

☆ China may have to bail out one of its poorest provinces
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Hong Kong CNN —One of China’s poorest and most indebted provinces has admitted defeat in trying to sort out its finances and is appealing to Beijing for help to avert default. Guizhou, located in a mountainous region of southwest China, has hired a top state-owned distressed debt fund, China Cinda Asset Management, to resolve its “urgent” problems. China’s local governments are struggling with trillions of dollars of debt, after three years of strict pandemic controls and a real estate crash drained their coffers. The Pingtang Bridge links two cities in southwest China's Guizhou province. In China, most local government liabilities are composed of “hidden debt” issued by their financing arms.

☆ Dollar strength is good for some sectors but bad for workers, says Carnegie's Michael Pettis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDollar strength is good for some sectors but bad for workers, says Carnegie's Michael PettisMichael Pettis, senior fellow at The Carnegie Endowment and finance professor at Peking University, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the yuan rate surmounting the dollar, the status of the global dollar reserve, and the state of dollar dominance worldwide.

☆ Beijing has 'really serious' headwinds but this year is a bit like 2021, professor says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBeijing has 'really serious' headwinds but this year is a bit like 2021, professor saysMichael Pettis, professor of finance at the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, says he's expecting "enormous growth mostly as a partial reversal of the horrible previous year."

Summary China may miss typical November-December export surgeExports unexpectedly dropped in October as global demand ebbedFall in exports broad-based, from toys to appliancesBEIJING, Nov 10 (Reuters) - China's usual year-end export surge is in doubt as weak global demand dims a rare bright spot for the world's second-biggest economy, already hurt by COVID-19 lockdowns, a frozen property sector and ebbing domestic consumption. Analysts expect global recession risks and China's disruptive COVID curbs will further drag on exports in coming months, dashing hopes for an economic rebound this quarter. Qi was not sure of the scale of orders that overseas customers would place in December. A closely watched private-sector survey focussing on small manufacturers shows export orders contracting since August. Buyers usually book orders for Christmas and Black Friday around August, but weak demand already sapped any lift this period.

Then came the pandemic and a property crisis, and with them, clear evidence of the limits of the debt-fuelled, investment-driven model that had propelled China's economy and businesses like Shores'. "If there is no investment, consumption will be like a tree without roots," said Jia, who previously led a finance ministry think tank. Many uncertainties hang over China's economy: the zero-COVID policy, a crackdown on tech and other industries, geopolitical tensions and rising borrowing costs in export markets. China is widely expected to miss this year's 5.5% GDP growth target and Natixis estimates growth may not even top 3% a year into Xi's next mandate. Oxford Economics expects average annual GDP growth this decade to halve from the 1999-2019 average to 4.5% and slow to 3% in the decade after.

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